بِسْمِ اللّهِ الرَّحْمَنِ الرَّحِيمِ
Recently there have been some analyses in the media, especially the European and the American media regarding the next Egyptian president to succeed Hosni Mubarak who reportedly will not be renominated for the presidential elections scheduled in 2011 C.E. These reports have cited the names of Gamal Mubarak, Ayman Nour, Mohammed El-Baradaei and Amr Moussa among others, and among them Gamal Mubarak and Ayman Nour’s names are being touted as favourites.
We know that Gamal Mubarak has his loyalties to the US just like his father, does Ayman Nour also share the same loyalty especially because he was released from his previous detention just before Obama’s visit to Egypt? Or is Ayman Nour loyal to the Europeans? If this is correct, then does this mean that Europe and especially Britain are looking forward to get a foothold in Egypt after all these years of an American stronghold in Egypt?
Indeed political insight into the happenings in Egypt strongly suggests that the person who appears to be most favourite to succeed Hosni Mubarak is Gamal Mubarak and this view is strengthened by the following indicators:
Firstly: The United States is keen to see Gamal succeed his father and the follwing indicate their keenness:
1. He understands the position that the US desires and he is their next nominee. But the US is not letting its position on Gamal become known publicly so as not to give that impression and wants him to come through the maneuverings and manipulations of the democratic process. This is because if Gamal is seen as a US man, his chances will be eroded and his rivals be strengthened. It has therefore invited Gamal to visit America just as it has invited the other potential candidates so that it all looks routine and normal! On the other hand, if he was not supported by the US, it would have carried all sorts of smear campaigns against him for which it has more than sufficient evidence on paper. This is because America being a self-proclaimed champion of democracy can’t afford to be seen as fostering and encouraging dynastic rule which is essentially anti-democracy and also because such evidence, if it is allowed to come into the open, will among other things, also expose his involvement in pilfering huge wealth as a result of his father being at the helm of authority.
2. Gamal Mubarak visited the United States on 5th March, 2009 and met the leading figures of the US Congress including Senator John Kerry, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as well as Howard Peerman, the Chairman of the House of Representative’s Committee on International Affairs.
3. On 17th November, 2009, the ‘Arabian Business‘ newspaper carried a report that the US Congress expects Gamal Mubarak, the son of President Hosni Mubarak and the Political Secretary of the National Party to be the party’s nominee for the presidential elections in the year 2011.
4. The US fears that Hosni Mubarak may die before the next elections and is preparing for such an eventuality and grooming some of its potential people of which the most likely at present is Gamal Mubarak. He is trusted by the Americans as he has worked at the Cairo branch of Bank of America and later became manager of its branch in London. He was awarded honorary membership of the Rotary Club which is a front organisation of the American Freemasons.
Secondly: The Egyptian Regime is making all efforts to groom Gamal to be the President after his father, and this is evident in the following:
1. Gamal Mubarak was promoted to such positions where decision-making is involved, for instance, he was made head of the political affairs committee of the National Party and was also being the position of Asst. Secretary General of the ruling party. Of late there has been a vocal campaign by highly placed officials aimed at nominating him to lead the country. Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazeef said: “Gamal Mubarak is nominated to succeed his father in the next presdential elections in 2011.” [Radio Holland: 28.10.2009].
2. The Egyptian regime has provided several oppurtunities and authority to Gamal Mubarak in order to project him, make him acceptable by the people and cover-up his evil past and present by constructing a chining aura around him. Gamal began to show concern for people’s problems and issues and project himself as one who was considerate towards the poor and concerned about students problems. He even began to use internet following Obama’s footsteps to answer the queries posed by the youth. The regime fully cooperated with him like solving the issue of live-broadcasting of the Egyptian League matches for the 2009 season and providing a subsidy for cement in the same year. Groups and organsiations sprouted who voiced support for his succession as president; “Yes” group which was headed by a coptic christian named Mamdouh Zakhari Gergis; “Liberation” group circulated leaflets and stickers with the caption “Gamal Mubarak…Sweet Dream for a Beautiful Country”. The founder of this group named Aadil Sayyid who is a young doctor says the group was formed in 2006 and worked secretly in keeping with security advices and has a membership strength of 40,000, wherein the oldest member is below thirty years of age with a majority of them being unversity students. [al-Jazeerah 10.09.2007]. Apart from this, a group of youth led by a former member of the national parliament who wore shirts incribed with slogans such as “Love, Sinserity and Loyalty…Hallmarks of Gamal Mubark”. This was at a rally held at al-Najah village of the Buhairah province where Gamal and a group of ministers addressed the youth. [al-Jazeerah:03.09.2009]. All this is taking place right under the noses of the regime, or even planned and sponsored by them.
From all of this it is evident that the regime, or more precisely, the United States is providing conditions to facilitate Gamal Mubarak’s ascension as the next president to succeed his father.
Ayman Nour: As for him, he appears to be inclined towards Europe and Britain to be specific. It is therefore unlikely that the US-backed regime would support him to come to power as the president, so long as America’s influence is strong in Egypt. This view is supported by the following factors:
1. Ayman Nour began his political career in the “New Wafd Party” and was a close confidante of its president Mohammed Fouad Siraj eddin. Ayman Nour also was an assistant editor of the party’s newspaper. It is well-known that the Wafd Party bears loyalty to Britain. It is reported that many from the Wafd party left to join the Misr al Ghad (Egypt Tomorrow) party and the Egypt 2000 party which was established in October 2004. Though these parties have some minor differences with the Wafd party, nevertheless they share a common loyalty to Britain.
2. The Egyptian regime used its power to create hindrances for the Hizb al Ghad to the extent that this party was split just a year after its founding, and the splintered faction was led by the party general secretary Moussa Mustafa who became the new president and Ayman Nour and his wing of followers were seperated. Moussa commenting on Ayman Nour said: “What Ayman Nour advocates clearly endangers public secuity and the constitution in jeopardy” [al-Jamhouriyyah al-Misriyyah newspaper: 13.10.2009]. It is evident from this that the Egyptian regime was behind the split, since what Moussa attributed to Ayman Nour’s intentions about jeopardising the constitution and harming public security is clearly a governmental allegation!
3. He opposed a number of detentions carried out by the regime on various grounds, but it was clear that Ayman Nour worked overtly and covertly against the regime and its policies therefore he demanded amendments to the Egyptian constitution or setting a specific time-limit of a one year period transition during which a constituent assembly be called to draft a new constitution with no participation of the officials of the transition in the constituent assembly. From this it is evident that Ayman Nour wanted serious changes in the regime, infact his slogan itself was: “Hope lies in Change”.
4. The Europeans intensly demanded his release and had objected to his detention right from day one of his arrest and had even maintained contact with him during his dentention period. The Reuters reported on February 1st, 2007: “Edward MacMillan Scott, the head of the European Parliament and its special envoy for its “Democratic and Human Rights” tried yesterday to meet Ayman Nour but was prevented from seeing him though he was made to wait for an hour and a half. MacMillan Scott called on the European Union to take a more firm and stronger view towards the Egyptian regime and pointed to the fact that the regime had violated Ayman Nour’s liberties”. Al-Jazeerah had cited a report by the German News Agency that “Ayman Nour had stated while in prison that he had written to Louis Moreno Okambo the Prosecutor-General of the International Court of Justice on 15.08.09 complaining about complaining against Egyptian officials, including Egyptian President Mubarak, Minister of Interior Habib el-Adli and the Public Prosecutor Abdel Megid Mahmoud in relation to his detention…”. This complaint is a strong pressure brought against the Egyptian regime by the EU since the International Court of Justice is backed by Europe. Further, the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation released a series of reports during 2008 clearly stating in them the fake allegations brought against Ayman Nour by the Egyptian regime. This itself demostrates Europe’s concern for Ayman Nour and their support for him.
5. The statements issued in this regard by the US officials were routine statements as required by their policies, but they did not include a serious demand of his release from prison. However when the Eurpoean campaign for Ayman Nour’s release was intensified and came to the International Court, the US feared for the Egyptian regime which is its ally and was concerned that this issue may add further to the issue of Omar al-Basheer. Therefore, the US high-pitched its calls for Human rights and democracy durring the run-up to Obama’s visit to Egypt and its media demanded release of the detainees and mentioned Ayman Nour’s name in the list in the hope that this move will help in making Obama’s visit a success. The Washinton Post newspaper then wrote on 26.02.2009 that: “Dr. Ayman Nour, the leader of the Ghad Party must be released, and that it is neccessary if the Egyptian President wanted to meet Obama in a cordial atmosphere”. Only days after this, Ayman Nour was released. This release, coming a few months before the term was aimed at diffusing the EU pressure and to demosntrate that it was the US that held effective power in Egypt, and not the Europeans.
Thus it is evident that Ayman Nour is allied to the Europeans and especially Britain. His political grooming in the Wafd party as well as the nurturing of his former leader Mohammed Foud Siraj eddin who also was allied to the British. He was promoted to be the assistant editor of the Wafd party’s newspaper, and European politicians and newspapers as well as the Internal Court have supported him. All these indicators support the overwhelming notion that he is allied to the British. This means that the Egyptian regime allied to the US will not allow him to succeed as the president and therefore the person most likely to succeed Hosni Mubarak as the Republic’s president is Hosni’s son Gamal Mubarak, i.e so long as the US influence in Egypt is stong.
28th Dhul Hijjah, 1430 A.H
15th December, 2009 C.E